The recent election of Jeremiah Manele as the new Prime Minister of the Solomon Islands marks a significant moment in the nation’s political landscape. On 2 May 2024, newly picked Solomon Islands legislators made a clear choice, opting for Manele over Democratic Party and Care coalition leader Matthew Wale. Manele’s appointment, representing the Ownership, Unity, and Responsibility Party (OUR Party), was achieved amidst a backdrop of international anticipation and scrutiny, particularly regarding his predecessor, Manasseh Sogavare.
The peaceful passing of the 17 April election is commendable, reflecting the commitment of all involved to the democratic process. This is another major victory for the political development of Pacific Island countries after Fiji's peaceful transition of power in 2023. The choice of Manele as prime minister and the forming of a coalition government required considerable support from independent members of parliament. The OUR Party, who went into the election led by Sogavare, secured 15 of the 26 seats needed for a majority. Opposition parties, such as the Democratic Party and United Party, led by Peter Kenilorea Jr., received increases in the number of seats in the new National Parliament. On 29 April, Sogavare announced he would be stepping down from consideration for prime minister, paving the way for foreign minister, Manele to become the first prime minister from Isabel Province.
The transition of power from Sogavare to Manele underscores a possible shift in focus for the Solomon Islands, moving from the geopolitical tensions that characterized Sogavare’s tenure. While Sogavare’s fourth time as Prime Minister between April 2019 and May 2024 saw significant US and Australian attention on his alignment with China, including the signing of a security pact in 2022, Manele’s election presents an opportunity for a reset in Solomon Islands politics towards more pressing domestic concerns.
However, commentary outside the Solomon Islands continues to center on the nation’s relationship with China. Manele’s role as Minister of Foreign Affairs during the “switch” of diplomatic recognition from Taiwan to China in 2019 has drawn attention, overshadowing his potential for a balanced and inclusive foreign policy approach. Critics have been quick to speculate on Manele’s allegiances, viewing his election solely through the lens of geopolitical competition. The assumption that Manele's past engagements with China will dictate his future decisions risks oversimplifying the complexities of Solomon Islands’ foreign policy, as other observers have noted Manele as a less polarizing political leader, open to working with all external partners.
Many analysts will regard the swinging diplomatic choices as a major factor affecting the election, especially Peter Kenilorea Jr., who made a high-profile statement before the election that if he wins, he will redirect Solomon’s diplomatic relations with China towards Taipei. However, the large number of independent MPs joining the OUR-led coalition also confirms that taking sides among regional powers is not the decisive factor in the general election. The fragile economy of the Solomon Islands may be the core question that tests the political wisdom of the country’s leaders. Unlike some of its Melanesian neighbors, Solomon Islands has been unable to develop tourism; also the lack of transportation infrastructure, available employment training, and even unexploded ordinance from World War II have limited the country's ability to diversify the economy from the export of raw materials. Further, the ability of Pacific Island countries to maintain industrial operations has worsened under Australia’s extensive provisions allowing skilled workers to obtain residency and job opportunities more easily. The shortage of education and planning in remote areas is an even more dangerous sign for the long-term development of the country.
Moving forward, it is imperative for external partners to respect the Solomon Islands’ agency and prioritize support for initiatives that directly address pressing domestic challenges. Associate professor and former director of the Center for Pacific Islands Studies at the University of Hawai'i and Solomon Islander, Tarcisius Kabutaulaka explained in the run up to the election that the government’s effectiveness in delivering vital social services like healthcare, education, and rural development are priorities for the electorate. He added, “It’s not so much about the China relationships or relationships with the US, it’s going to be about the ability of those elected and their willingness to assist people locally or assist their communities.” As Solomon Islands academics, Priestley Habru and Claudina Habru observe, rural Solomon Islanders prioritize domestic issues over geopolitical maneuvering.
On the day of his appointment, Manele highlighted the critical need to address tough economic times for Solomon Islanders, given job losses, sharp increases in the cost of living, and contracted or modest growth during and after the pandemic. Sogavare's political legacy can help the new government open a new path. The opening of direct flights to Solomon Islands from mainland China has begun to lay the foundation for the growth of tourism, which in turn has put potential pressure on traditional tourism driven countries such as Fiji. Manele’s leadership presents an opportunity for collaborative efforts among external partners and the new government to find a direction, unencumbered by the constraints of zero-sum geopolitical thinking.
Ultimately, the Solomon Islands’ future prosperity hinges not on external competitions for influence, but on its ability to chart a course of sustainable development that uplifts all its citizens. Manele's election signals a potential turning point in the nation’s trajectory, away from divisive geopolitics and towards a future defined by responsibility, and progress. It is incumbent upon both domestic and international stakeholders to support this vision wholeheartedly, recognizing the primacy of Solomon Islands’ sovereignty and the imperative of collective action in addressing on the ground challenges.
Author:
Henryk Szadziewski, Center for Pacific Islands Studies, University of Hawai'i at Mānoa
Michael Honglian Yang, Research Center for Pacific Island Countries, Liaocheng University
